Find your way in
- Map — systems, themes and the constraints that gate them, with the evidence behind each gate
- The disclosures and the method
The market-intelligence desk for the physical AI buildout
See beyond the mountain.
The headline names are the peaks. Breakwise maps what stands behind them: the power, the parts with long lead times, and the companies that depend on each one.
00 · The chain
One chain, from the mine to the model.
The desk places every basket, constraint and company on one order of stages across all four systems, and breaks every stage into the parts it is made of. Open a stage to see its schematic. Amber marks where the chain is tightest.
Nowcompute · power
Nextphysical · after the chips
Laterorbital · after the halls
In the desk: the names on every part, the pressure on every gate, the theses and their sources.Get early access
01 · How it works
Know what deserves a closer look
A filing lands, an assumption moves, a piece of evidence goes missing. The desk shows what touched which thesis, what the claim rests on, and who else sits on the same constraint.
Change review
ChangesResolvedWatching
KindAllFilingGuidanceTranscriptRevision
- FilingAI / IntelligenceComputed
- TranscriptEnergy / PowerInterpreted
- GuidanceAI / IntelligenceInterpretedTouches a thesis
- RevisionSpaceModeled
- FilingRobotics / MotionComputed
- TranscriptEnergy / PowerSpeculative
Claim · the thesis it touchesInterpreted
said lead times on lengthened; the thesis assumed they would ease.
Quote · verified before it was stored
“ ”
Invalidated iflead times ease at the next report
Company
Constraintpressure
Also exposed
Notice · 6 rows shownschematic · no names, no data
On the desk
Every line carries its label and its source.
-
Notice
A filing, a revised assumption, a missing piece of evidence. The desk lists what touched a thesis and which claim it reaches. Start with what merits attention.
-
Inspect
Open the claim: the quote it rests on, verified before it was stored, the source, the label, and what would invalidate it.
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Follow
Move from a company to the physical constraint its thesis depends on, and to every other business sitting on the same one.
02 · Monitor
Write down what would break it, before the filing does
Every thesis is written so it can be wrong, and watched against the checks that would prove it. A failed check is a new row, never an edit. Every call is scored when it resolves.
Thesis monitor
Thesisacceptedbreaker hit
Claims
Computed
Modeled
Interpreted
Speculative
Checks
- Lead times✓
- Backlog✓
- Capacity adds✓✕
- Pricing✓
- Utilisation✓
New row · append-only
Check retracted by row ; the old row stays.
| Direction | Confidence | Horizon | Opened | Resolves | Outcome | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| resolved | ||||||
| open | — | |||||
| open | — |
Calibration · said vs happened
Watching · checks run nightlyschematic · no names, no data
The ledger
Scored, dated, never edited.
-
Watch
Each thesis names the checks that would break it. The desk runs them against every new filing and reported figure.
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Flag
A check that fails raises the breaker. A check that was wrong is retracted by a new row that points at the old one; nothing is overwritten.
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Score
Calls carry direction, confidence and horizon. When they resolve they are scored, and the calibration shows what the desk said against what happened.
03 · The desk · an ontology that grows
Seven layers and one loop. Each layer knows only what the one below proved.
Data flows upward through the desk. A fact cannot reach a thesis without its quote; a call cannot reach a surface without its date. Four labels carry every claim.
- ComputedReproducible from a named function with named inputs.
- ModeledA formula and its assumptions, both on the line. Never a target.
- InterpretedRead from a filing; the quote verified before it was stored.
- SpeculativeA view without a check yet. Labelled, warned, dated.
The desk · schematic, not market data
Sources
Filings, transcripts, prices and open research: the record of what was said and when. Every document is kept as it was read.
Quote gate
A fact is stored only with the sentence it came from, matched word for word. A fact the text does not say is refused, and the refusal is kept too.
Ontology
One chain across four systems: every stage broken into the parts it is made of, every basket, gate and company placed on it, with a source on every edge. It grows as the desk reads.
Theses
Claims, bands, scenarios; each one written with what would prove it wrong and how it ends. A thesis is superseded by a new one, never edited.
Ledger
Calls with direction, confidence, horizon and date; scored when they resolve. A check that was wrong is retracted by a new row that points at it.
Surfaces
Seven publish, dated and labelled; two never do.
Silicon
The top of the stack: what you read, lit from everything underneath it.
The loop
The record runs back down the stack. The desk proposes, a person disposes, and the record decides what it reads next.
Ask any question about the buildout
Breakwise reads the filings, the transcripts and the desk's own record to answer it, with the label and the source on every line. An analyst who has read everything and shows the work.
Answers can be followed over time as the record fills, and scoped by system, constraint or company.
01/04
Example questions
Which constraint gates the most companies right now, and what is the evidence behind the gate?
Which thesis moved this week, and which claim did the new evidence touch?
Which dated events are ahead on the chain, and what would each one resolve?
What would break the current call on a constraint, and when is it scored?
05 · Early access
The desk opens to a small group first
The map and the method are open to everyone. The daily desk opens as a pilot: a few readers, one case a week by email, and a say in what it watches next. Your email, then five taps.
Work it every day
- Today — one cross-system view of what deserves attention
- Changes — the append-only record of every thesis-state move
- Theses — each with what would break it, written down before the filing
- The call ledger, the evidence trail under every claim, and Ask
06 · Disclosure and discretion
Two surfaces that never leave the desk
Never published
Setups
Never published
Holdings
Setups and holdings never leave the desk. Nothing here is a recommendation to anyone. Built and run by Anthony Meijer, whose work spans engineering, applied research and AI systems that turn observations into early warnings. Disclosures · Trust · The builder